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Assured Guaranty Ltd
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Let's analyse Assured Guaranty Ltd together

PenkeI guess you are interested in Assured Guaranty Ltd. Buy, hold or sell? I don't know! However, I do recommend doing research before doing anything. I will help you with that.

I'm going to help you getting a better view of Assured Guaranty Ltd. At the end you don't have to ask anyone for trading advice. You can make your own decision, with more confidence, the odds in your favor, backed by data.

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Quick analysis of Assured Guaranty Ltd (30 sec.)










What can you expect buying and holding a share of Assured Guaranty Ltd? (30 sec.)

How much money do you get?

How much money do you get?
$4.50
When do you have the money?
1 year
How often do you get paid?
100.0%

What is your share worth?

Current worth
$181.96
Expected worth in 1 year
$578.55
How sure are you?
90.0%

+ What do you gain per year?

Total Gains per Share
$401.08
Return On Investment
511.2%

For what price can you sell your share?

Current Price per Share
$78.46
Expected price per share
$65.36 - $93.19
How sure are you?
50%

1. Valuation of Assured Guaranty Ltd (5 min.)




Live pricePrice per Share (EOD)

$78.46

Intrinsic Value Per Share

$-116.38 - $210.21

Total Value Per Share

$65.58 - $392.17

2. Growth of Assured Guaranty Ltd (5 min.)




Is Assured Guaranty Ltd growing?

Current yearPrevious yearGrowGrow %
How rich?$10.8b$5.2b$5.5b51.2%

How much money is Assured Guaranty Ltd making?

Current yearPrevious yearGrowGrow %
Making money$457m$124m$333m72.9%
Net Profit Margin44.0%18.1%--

How much money comes from the company's main activities?

3. Financial Health of Assured Guaranty Ltd (5 min.)




What can you expect buying and holding a share of Assured Guaranty Ltd? (5 min.)

Welcome investor! Assured Guaranty Ltd's management wants to use your money to grow the business. In return you get a share of Assured Guaranty Ltd.

What can you expect buying and holding a share of Assured Guaranty Ltd?

First you should know what it really means to hold a share of Assured Guaranty Ltd. And how you can make/lose money.

Speculation

The Price per Share of Assured Guaranty Ltd is $78.46. The market price reflects what other people think it is worth; not what it's really worth. Your job is to find out if the market price is fair, overpriced, or underpriced. I will help you with that.

If you buy blind, there is a 50% chance of making or losing money by selling the stock in the future. However, we can look at a few things to determine the odds in our favor:

  • The fundamentals: the financial health trends of Assured Guaranty Ltd.
  • The technials: based on market psychology, we can make a calculated estimate of what the price will do in the future. We can do this through technical analysis. We can calculate the probabilities and the expected value (millionaire math). That's called speculation.
  • The book value: what is the market price compared to it's book value.

Investing

If you really want to invest in Assured Guaranty Ltd, you will have to let go of the thought of selling in the future. If you have to sell the share for less than you bought it, it can still be a good investment. Focus on what it means to hold the stock forever:

  • You own a part of the company. The equity of this part can grow or shrink. The current Book Value per Share is $181.96. Based on the TTM, the Book Value Change Per Share is $99.15 per quarter. Based on the YOY, the Book Value Change Per Share is $-139.73 per quarter.
  • You may receive quarterly/yearly dividend in the form of additional shares.
  • You may receive quarterly/yearly dividend in the form of cash. Based on the TTM the Dividend per Share is $1.12 per quarter.
Based on historical numbers we can estimate the returns while holding a share of Assured Guaranty Ltd.

How much money are you going to get?

 MRQTTMYOY5Y10Y
 $% of Price per Share$% of Price per Share$% of Price per Share$% of Price per Share$% of Price per Share
Usd Eps7.679.8%7.679.8%1.942.5%4.615.9%5.366.8%
Usd Book Value Change Per Share99.15126.4%99.15126.4%-139.73-178.1%24.6131.4%15.4719.7%
Usd Dividend Per Share1.121.4%1.121.4%1.001.3%0.911.2%0.720.9%
Usd Total Gains Per Share100.27127.8%100.27127.8%-138.73-176.8%25.5232.5%16.1920.6%
Usd Price Per Share74.83-74.83-62.26-53.56-43.01-
Price to Earnings Ratio9.76-9.76-32.08-14.23-9.86-
Price-to-Total Gains Ratio0.75-0.75--0.45-0.55-2.95-
Price to Book Ratio0.41-0.41-0.75-0.39-0.54-
Price-to-Total Gains Ratio0.75-0.75--0.45-0.55-2.95-

When do you get the money?

Usd Investment
$.00
Usd Price Per Share78.46
Number of shares12
Gains per QuarterTrailing 12 Months5 Year
Usd Dividend Per Share1.120.91
Usd Book Value Change Per Share99.1524.61
Usd Total Gains Per Share100.2725.52
Gains per Quarter (12 shares)1,203.24306.29
Gains per Year (12 shares)4,812.981,225.16
YearsReturn on Investment (TTM)Return on Investment (5Y)
 DividendBook Value gainTotal gainsDividendBook Value gainTotal gains
Broker costs---10---10
154475948034411811215
2108951896168723632440
3162142771442913135443665
4216190361924217547264890
5270237952405521959076115
6324285542886826270897340
7378333133368130682708565
8432380723849435094529790
948642831433073931063311015
1054047590481204371181512240

How sure are you?

Based on the past periods, how sure are you to get value out of your investment.

Linear %
 Trailing 12 Months3Y5 Year10 YearALLTIME
  % % % % %
Earnings Per Share1.00.00.0100.0%3.00.00.0100.0%5.00.00.0100.0%10.00.00.0100.0%21.01.00.095.5%
Book Value Change Per Share1.00.00.0100.0%2.01.00.066.7%4.01.00.080.0%9.01.00.090.0%18.04.00.081.8%
Dividend per Share1.00.00.0100.0%3.00.00.0100.0%5.00.00.0100.0%10.00.00.0100.0%22.00.00.0100.0%
Total Gains per Share1.00.00.0100.0%2.01.00.066.7%4.01.00.080.0%9.01.00.090.0%19.03.00.086.4%

Fundamentals of Assured Guaranty Ltd

About Assured Guaranty Ltd

Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments: Insurance and Asset Management. The company offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. It insures and reinsures various debt obligations, including bonds issued by the United States state governmental authorities; and notes issued to finance infrastructure projects. In addition, the company insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds. Further, the company involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, pooled infrastructure, and other public finance obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. Structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, consumer receivables securities, subscription finance facilities, pooled corporate obligations, and financial products. Additionally, it offers specialty business, such as real estate properties, insurance securitizations, and aircraft residual value insurance (RVI) transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors in such obligations. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

Fundamental data was last updated by Penke on 2024-04-13 04:23:05.

Financial Health

Profitability Details
 Compared to previous yearCompared to industry
The company is making a huge profit.
Using its assets, the company is less efficient in making profit.
Using its investors money, the company is less efficient in making profit.
Operating Efficiency Details
 Compared to previous yearCompared to industry
The company is operating very efficient.
The company is efficient in keeping operating costs low.
Liquidity Details
 Compared to previous yearCompared to industry
The company is very able to pay all its short-term debts.
The company is very able to pay all its short-term debts with the most liquid assets.
Solvency Details
 Compared to previous yearCompared to industry
The company is very able to pay all its debts by selling its assets.
The company is very able to pay all its debts with equity.

Valuation

Valuation Details
 Compared to previous yearCompared to industry
Based on the equity, the company is cheap.
Based on the earnings, the company is underpriced.
Based on how much money comes from the company's main activities, the company is cheap.

1.1. Profitability of Assured Guaranty Ltd.

1.1. Profitability
1.1.1. Net Profit Margin

Measures how much net profit Assured Guaranty Ltd earns for each $1 of revenue.

  • Above 10% is considered healthy but always compare Assured Guaranty Ltd to the Insurance - Specialty industry mean.
  • A Net Profit Margin of 44.0% means that $0.44 for each $1 in revenue is generated as profit.

Let's take a look of the Net Profit Margin trends of Assured Guaranty Ltd:

  • The MRQ is 44.0%. The company is making a huge profit. +2
  • The TTM is 44.0%. The company is making a huge profit. +2
Trends
Current periodCompared to+/- 
MRQ44.0%TTM44.0%0.0%
TTM44.0%YOY18.1%+25.9%
TTM44.0%5Y39.0%+5.0%
5Y39.0%10Y47.2%-8.2%
1.1.2. Return on Assets

Shows how efficient Assured Guaranty Ltd is using its assets to generate profit.

  • Above 5% is considered healthy but always compare Assured Guaranty Ltd to the Insurance - Specialty industry mean.
  • 3.6% Return on Assets means that Assured Guaranty Ltd generated $0.04 profit for each $1 in assets.

Let's take a look of the Return on Assets trends of Assured Guaranty Ltd:

  • The MRQ is 3.6%. Using its assets, the company is less efficient in making profit.
  • The TTM is 3.6%. Using its assets, the company is less efficient in making profit.
Trends
Current periodCompared to+/- 
MRQ3.6%TTM3.6%0.0%
TTM3.6%YOY0.7%+2.9%
TTM3.6%5Y2.3%+1.3%
5Y2.3%10Y4.1%-1.8%
1.1.3. Return on Equity

Shows how efficient Assured Guaranty Ltd is using its investors money to generate profit.

  • Above 15%-20% is considered healthy but always compare Assured Guaranty Ltd to the Insurance - Specialty industry mean.
  • 8.0% Return on Equity means Assured Guaranty Ltd generated $0.08 for each $1 the owners (shareholders) invested.

Let's take a look of the Return on Equity trends of Assured Guaranty Ltd:

  • The MRQ is 8.0%. Using its investors money, the company is less efficient in making profit.
  • The TTM is 8.0%. Using its investors money, the company is less efficient in making profit.
Trends
Current periodCompared to+/- 
MRQ8.0%TTM8.0%0.0%
TTM8.0%YOY2.4%+5.6%
TTM8.0%5Y5.6%+2.4%
5Y5.6%10Y9.7%-4.0%

1.2. Operating Efficiency of Assured Guaranty Ltd.

1.2. Operating Efficiency
1.2.1. Operating Margin

Measures how efficient Assured Guaranty Ltd is operating .

  • Measures how much profit Assured Guaranty Ltd makes for each $1 of sales after paying variable costs (production costs, wages, etc) but before taxes.
  • Above 15% is considered healthy but always compare Assured Guaranty Ltd to the Insurance - Specialty industry mean.
  • An Operating Margin of 49.6% means the company generated $0.50  for each $1 in revenue (before taxes).

Let's take a look of the Operating Margin trends of Assured Guaranty Ltd:

  • The MRQ is 49.6%. The company is operating very efficient. +2
  • The TTM is 49.6%. The company is operating very efficient. +2
Trends
Current periodCompared to+/- 
MRQ49.6%TTM49.6%0.0%
TTM49.6%YOY29.7%+19.9%
TTM49.6%5Y44.2%+5.4%
5Y44.2%10Y60.8%-16.6%
1.2.2. Operating Ratio

Measures how efficient Assured Guaranty Ltd is keeping operating costs low.

  • Below 1 is considered healthy (always compare to Insurance - Specialty industry mean).
  • An Operation Ratio of 0.66 means that the operating costs are $0.66 for each $1 in net sales.

Let's take a look of the Operating Ratio trends of Assured Guaranty Ltd:

  • The MRQ is 0.665. The company is efficient in keeping operating costs low. +1
  • The TTM is 0.665. The company is efficient in keeping operating costs low. +1
Trends
Current periodCompared to+/- 
MRQ0.665TTM0.6650.000
TTM0.665YOY-0.215+0.880
TTM0.6655Y-0.112+0.777
5Y-0.11210Y-0.030-0.082

1.3. Liquidity of Assured Guaranty Ltd.

1.3. Liquidity
1.3.1. Current Ratio

Measures if Assured Guaranty Ltd is able to pay off Short-term Debt.

  • Above 1.5 is considered healthy (always compare to Insurance - Specialty industry mean).
  • A Current Ratio of 20.45 means the company has $20.45 in assets for each $1 in short-term debts.

Let's take a look of the Current Ratio trends of Assured Guaranty Ltd:

  • The MRQ is 20.447. The company is very able to pay all its short-term debts. +2
  • The TTM is 20.447. The company is very able to pay all its short-term debts. +2
Trends
Current periodCompared to+/- 
MRQ20.447TTM20.4470.000
TTM20.447YOY32.293-11.846
TTM20.4475Y17.520+2.927
5Y17.52010Y293.833-276.313
1.3.2. Quick Ratio

Measures if Assured Guaranty Ltd is able to pay off Short-term Debt but only using the most liquid assets.

  • Above 1 is considered healthy but always compare Assured Guaranty Ltd to the Insurance - Specialty industry mean.
  • A Quick Ratio of 46.23 means the company can pay off $46.23 for each $1 in debt (using most liquid assets).

Let's take a look of the Quick Ratio trends of Assured Guaranty Ltd:

  • The MRQ is 46.231. The company is very able to pay all its short-term debts with the most liquid assets. +2
  • The TTM is 46.231. The company is very able to pay all its short-term debts with the most liquid assets. +2
Trends
Current periodCompared to+/- 
MRQ46.231TTM46.2310.000
TTM46.231YOY58.990-12.759
TTM46.2315Y33.636+12.595
5Y33.63610Y609.021-575.386

1.4. Solvency of Assured Guaranty Ltd.

1.3. Liquidity
1.4.1. Debt to Asset Ratio

Measures how much % of Assured Guaranty Ltd assets are financed with debt.

  • Below 1 (100%) is considered healthy but always compare Assured Guaranty Ltd to Insurance - Specialty industry mean.
  • A Debt to Asset Ratio of 0.14 means that Assured Guaranty Ltd assets are financed with 13.5% credit (debt) and the remaining percentage (100% - 13.5%) is financed by its owners/shareholders. 

Let's take a look of the Debt to Asset Ratio trends of Assured Guaranty Ltd:

  • The MRQ is 0.135. The company is very able to pay all its debts by selling its assets. +2
  • The TTM is 0.135. The company is very able to pay all its debts by selling its assets. +2
Trends
Current periodCompared to+/- 
MRQ0.135TTM0.1350.000
TTM0.135YOY0.686-0.551
TTM0.1355Y0.216-0.081
5Y0.21610Y0.386-0.170
1.4.2. Debt to Equity Ratio

Measures if Assured Guaranty Ltd is able to pay off its debts by using shareholders equity.

  • Below 2 is considered healthy but always compare Assured Guaranty Ltd to the Insurance - Specialty industry mean.
  • A Debt to Equity ratio of 29.7% means that company has $0.30 debt for each $1 in shareholders equity.

Let's take a look of the Debt to Equity Ratio trends of Assured Guaranty Ltd:

  • The MRQ is 0.297. The company is very able to pay all its debts with equity. +2
  • The TTM is 0.297. The company is very able to pay all its debts with equity. +2
Trends
Current periodCompared to+/- 
MRQ0.297TTM0.2970.000
TTM0.297YOY2.281-1.984
TTM0.2975Y0.643-0.346
5Y0.64310Y0.957-0.314

2. Market Valuation of Assured Guaranty Ltd

2.1. Earnings Per Share
2.1. Price to Earnings Ratio

Measures how much money you pay for each share for every $1 in earnings Assured Guaranty Ltd generates.

  • Above 15 is considered overpriced but always compare Assured Guaranty Ltd to the Insurance - Specialty industry mean.
  • A PE ratio of 9.76 means the investor is paying $9.76 for every $1 in earnings.

Let's take a look of the Price to Earnings Ratio trends of Assured Guaranty Ltd:

  • The EOD is 10.232. Based on the earnings, the company is underpriced. +1
  • The MRQ is 9.759. Based on the earnings, the company is underpriced. +1
  • The TTM is 9.759. Based on the earnings, the company is underpriced. +1
Trends
Current periodCompared to+/- 
EOD10.232MRQ9.759+0.473
MRQ9.759TTM9.7590.000
TTM9.759YOY32.084-22.325
TTM9.7595Y14.230-4.471
5Y14.23010Y9.863+4.367
2.2. Price To Free Cash Flow Ratio

Let's take a look of the Price To Free Cash Flow Ratio trends of Assured Guaranty Ltd:

  • The EOD is 10.144. Based on how much money comes from the company's main activities, the company is cheap. +2
  • The MRQ is 9.674. Based on how much money comes from the company's main activities, the company is cheap. +2
  • The TTM is 9.674. Based on how much money comes from the company's main activities, the company is cheap. +2
Trends
Current periodCompared to+/- 
EOD10.144MRQ9.674+0.469
MRQ9.674TTM9.6740.000
TTM9.674YOY-1.605+11.279
TTM9.6745Y-1.338+11.012
5Y-1.33810Y-9.173+7.836
2. Book Value per Share
2.3. Price to Book Ratio

Measures if the stock price of Assured Guaranty Ltd is to cheap or to expensive compared to its book value.

  • At or below 1 is considered healthy (always compare to Insurance - Specialty industry mean).
  • A PB ratio of 0.41 means the investor is paying $0.41 for each $1 in book value.

Let's take a look of the Price to Book Ratio trends of Assured Guaranty Ltd:

  • The EOD is 0.431. Based on the equity, the company is cheap. +2
  • The MRQ is 0.411. Based on the equity, the company is cheap. +2
  • The TTM is 0.411. Based on the equity, the company is cheap. +2
Trends
Current periodCompared to+/- 
EOD0.431MRQ0.411+0.020
MRQ0.411TTM0.4110.000
TTM0.411YOY0.752-0.341
TTM0.4115Y0.391+0.020
5Y0.39110Y0.542-0.151
2. Total Gains per Share

3. Holders & Insider Transactions

Let's take a look at which institutions, funds and insiders are holding shares of Assured Guaranty Ltd.

3.1. Institutions holding Assured Guaranty Ltd

Institutions are holding 93.81% of the shares of Assured Guaranty Ltd.

DateNameTotal SharesTotal AssetsCurrent SharesChange%
2023-09-30BlackRock Inc12.50630.01257160695-657270-8.4072
2023-09-30Vanguard Group Inc11.8510.01016785458-210618-3.0105
2023-12-31Putnam Investments LLC9.01070.50985159243-185698-3.4743
2023-12-31Wellington Management Company LLP8.99890.0725152455-122457-2.3215
2023-12-31Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc.7.50930.0944299553-1078-0.0251
2023-09-30State Street Corporation3.50740.00672008238-51275-2.4897
2023-12-31Principal Financial Group Inc2.0280.05541161173-51251-4.2272
2023-12-31Fuller & Thaler Asset Management Inc1.84870.40131058481-43447-3.9428
2023-12-31Kahn Brothers & CO Inc /DE/1.724511.6399987372-34767-3.4014
2023-12-31Reinhart Mahoney Capital Management Inc1.5612.9429893788676138.1839
2023-12-31Royce & Associates, LP1.42990.5658818719-69849-7.8609
2023-09-30Geode Capital Management, LLC1.42190.0059814112-12392-1.4993
2023-09-30Boston Partners Global Investors, Inc1.20730.0582691259-22167-3.1071
2023-09-30Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts1.15340.004166038310270718.417
2023-12-31Brown Advisory Holdings Inc1.10120.0663630483-11966-1.8626
2023-09-30Alyeska Investment Group, L.P.1.03020.242458983820716154.1347
2023-12-31NORGES BANK0.97110.0073556041-31197-5.3125
2023-09-30Bank of New York Mellon Corp0.87350.0067500139-33903-6.3484
2023-09-30Northern Trust Corp0.84490.0057483735-2524-0.5191
2023-09-30Philadelphia Financial Mgmt Of San Franc0.77796.863544540314758249.5539
Total 71.357123.570540856568-1016796-2.5%

3.2. Funds holding Assured Guaranty Ltd

DateNameTotal SharesTotal AssetsCurrent SharesChange%
2024-03-28iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF6.61210.39863670840-4722-0.1285
2023-12-31Putnam US Large Cap Value Equity5.29521.0292293970900
2023-12-31Putnam Large Cap Value A5.29520.9803293970900
2024-02-29Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Inv3.01960.00991676401-5845-0.3475
2023-12-31Vanguard Explorer Inv2.80450.54491556963-187339-10.7401
2024-02-29Vanguard Small Cap Index2.52560.09141402119130400.9388
2024-02-29DFA US Small Cap Value I2.34490.7753130183000
2024-02-29Vanguard Small Cap Value Index Inv1.72190.164795592757630.6065
2023-12-31FullerThaler Behavioral Small-Cap Value1.66430.8104923968-26437-2.7817
2024-02-29Undiscovered Managers Behavioral Val L1.470.872816096-62870-7.1527
2024-02-29Vanguard Institutional Extnd Mkt Idx Tr1.44390.07280163418380.2298
2024-02-29DFA US Targeted Value I1.05130.4142583661-5602-0.9507
2023-12-31Putnam Large Cap Value Trust IA0.97270.76154001700
2024-03-29Dimensional US Targeted Value ETF0.95030.458152760100
2024-03-28SPDR® Portfolio S&P 600 Sm Cap ETF0.86780.39974817524950.1029
2024-02-29Vanguard Tax-Managed Small Cap Adm0.79640.455744213700
2024-03-29Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF0.77890.347943242400
2024-02-29State St Russell Sm/Mid Cp® Indx NL Cl C0.6150.074934140674002.2155
2024-02-29Brown Advisory Small-Cap Fdmtl Val Inv0.59952.2876332842-1112-0.333
2024-02-29DFA US Small Cap I0.59380.194632965400
Total 41.422911.142422996690-265391-1.2%

3.3. Insider Transactions

Insiders are holding 6.205% of the shares of Assured Guaranty Ltd.

DateOwnerTypeAmountPricePost Transaction AmountLink
2024-03-20Dominic FredericoSELL5500092.43
2023-12-15G Lawrence BuhlSELL250071.26
2023-12-08Stephen DonnarummaSELL1500069.96
2023-12-05Dominic FredericoSELL2048468.7
2023-09-13Dominic FredericoSELL2997761.13
2023-08-24Robert BailensonSELL1000058.33
2023-08-22Robert BailensonSELL1000057.19

4. Summary

4.1. Key Performance Indicators

The key performance indicators of Assured Guaranty Ltd compared to the Most Recent Quarter (MRQ).

 End of day+/-Most Recent QuarterTrailing 12 Months+/-Year-Over-Year+/-5 Year+/-10 Year+/-
Book Value Change Per Share--99.14699.1460%-139.727+241%24.614+303%15.470+541%
Book Value Per Share--181.963181.9630%82.817+120%156.332+16%101.884+79%
Current Ratio--20.44720.4470%32.293-37%17.520+17%293.833-93%
Debt To Asset Ratio--0.1350.1350%0.686-80%0.216-37%0.386-65%
Debt To Equity Ratio--0.2970.2970%2.281-87%0.643-54%0.957-69%
Dividend Per Share--1.1241.1240%1.002+12%0.911+23%0.720+56%
Eps--7.6687.6680%1.941+295%4.611+66%5.363+43%
Free Cash Flow Per Share--7.7357.7350%-38.795+602%-14.421+286%-6.249+181%
Free Cash Flow To Equity Per Share---3.507-3.5070%-29.218+733%-10.219+191%-7.123+103%
Gross Profit Margin--1.0001.0000%1.0000%1.0000%1.0000%
Intrinsic Value_10Y_max--210.205--------
Intrinsic Value_10Y_min---116.378--------
Intrinsic Value_1Y_max---0.361--------
Intrinsic Value_1Y_min---17.358--------
Intrinsic Value_3Y_max--15.243--------
Intrinsic Value_3Y_min---47.530--------
Intrinsic Value_5Y_max--50.533--------
Intrinsic Value_5Y_min---72.402--------
Market Cap4355863820.000-2%4459868000.0004459868000.0000%3978414000.000+12%3958876800.000+13%4171214000.000+7%
Net Profit Margin--0.4400.4400%0.181+143%0.390+13%0.472-7%
Operating Margin--0.4960.4960%0.297+67%0.442+12%0.608-18%
Operating Ratio--0.6650.6650%-0.215+132%-0.112+117%-0.030+105%
Pb Ratio0.431+5%0.4110.4110%0.752-45%0.391+5%0.542-24%
Pe Ratio10.232+5%9.7599.7590%32.084-70%14.230-31%9.863-1%
Price Per Share78.460+5%74.83074.8300%62.260+20%53.560+40%43.014+74%
Price To Free Cash Flow Ratio10.144+5%9.6749.6740%-1.605+117%-1.338+114%-9.173+195%
Price To Total Gains Ratio0.782+5%0.7460.7460%-0.449+160%0.549+36%2.952-75%
Quick Ratio--46.23146.2310%58.990-22%33.636+37%609.021-92%
Return On Assets--0.0360.0360%0.007+395%0.023+56%0.041-12%
Return On Equity--0.0800.0800%0.024+227%0.056+42%0.097-17%
Total Gains Per Share--100.270100.2700%-138.725+238%25.524+293%16.190+519%
Usd Book Value--10845000000.00010845000000.0000%5292000000.000+105%11974600000.000-9%9159200000.000+18%
Usd Book Value Change Per Share--99.14699.1460%-139.727+241%24.614+303%15.470+541%
Usd Book Value Per Share--181.963181.9630%82.817+120%156.332+16%101.884+79%
Usd Dividend Per Share--1.1241.1240%1.002+12%0.911+23%0.720+56%
Usd Eps--7.6687.6680%1.941+295%4.611+66%5.363+43%
Usd Free Cash Flow--461000000.000461000000.0000%-2479000000.000+638%-1063400000.000+331%-403800000.000+188%
Usd Free Cash Flow Per Share--7.7357.7350%-38.795+602%-14.421+286%-6.249+181%
Usd Free Cash Flow To Equity Per Share---3.507-3.5070%-29.218+733%-10.219+191%-7.123+103%
Usd Market Cap4355863820.000-2%4459868000.0004459868000.0000%3978414000.000+12%3958876800.000+13%4171214000.000+7%
Usd Price Per Share78.460+5%74.83074.8300%62.260+20%53.560+40%43.014+74%
Usd Profit--457000000.000457000000.0000%124000000.000+269%346800000.000+32%601000000.000-24%
Usd Revenue--1038000000.0001038000000.0000%684000000.000+52%885000000.000+17%1213800000.000-14%
Usd Total Gains Per Share--100.270100.2700%-138.725+238%25.524+293%16.190+519%
 EOD+2 -6MRQTTM+0 -0YOY+30 -55Y+30 -510Y+23 -12

4.2. Fundamental Score

Let's check the fundamental score of Assured Guaranty Ltd based on Penke's default stock scanner.

Penke's Stock Scanner

  
  
IndicatorConditionValue
Price to Earnings Ratio (EOD)Between0-1510.232
Price to Book Ratio (EOD)Between0-10.431
Net Profit Margin (MRQ)Greater than00.440
Operating Margin (MRQ)Greater than00.496
Quick Ratio (MRQ)Greater than146.231
Current Ratio (MRQ)Greater than120.447
Debt to Asset Ratio (MRQ)Less than10.135
Debt to Equity Ratio (MRQ)Less than10.297
Return on Equity (MRQ)Greater than0.150.080
Return on Assets (MRQ)Greater than0.050.036
Total8/10 (80.0%)

4.3. Technical Score

Let's check the technical score of Assured Guaranty Ltd based on Penke's default Symbol scanner.

Penke's Symbol Scanner

  
  
IndicatorConditionValue
RsiGreater than5035.147
Ma 20Greater thanMa 5080.411
Ma 50Greater thanMa 10085.648
Ma 100Greater thanMa 20081.173
OpenGreater thanClose77.440
Total2/5 (40.0%)



Reversals in quarterly reports

I have detected a reversal (positive to negative, negative to positive) in the following values of the quarterly reports.

 2019-12-312020-12-312021-12-312022-12-312023-12-31
Other Assets  -9,350,000499,000-8,851,000206,000-8,645,0001,593,000-7,052,00011,713,0004,661,000
Total Operating Expenses  -461,000-291,000-752,000480,000-272,000-42,000-314,000787,000473,000



Latest Balance Sheet

Balance Sheet of 2023-12-31. Currency in USD. All numbers in thousands.

Summary
Total Assets12,539,000
Total Liabilities1,694,000
Total Stockholder Equity5,713,000
 As reported
Total Liabilities 1,694,000
Total Stockholder Equity+ 5,713,000
Total Assets = 12,539,000

Assets

Total Assets12,539,000
Total Current Assets7,872,000
Long-term Assets6,000
Total Current Assets
Cash And Cash Equivalents 97,000
Short-term Investments 7,968,000
Net Receivables 1,766,000
Inventory -5,872,000
Other Current Assets 3,913,000
Total Current Assets  (as reported)7,872,000
Total Current Assets  (calculated)7,872,000
+/-0
Long-term Assets
Property Plant Equipment 366,000
Long Term Investments 8,614,000
Intangible Assets 6,000
Long-term Assets Other -2,808,000
Long-term Assets  (as reported)6,000
Long-term Assets  (calculated)6,178,000
+/- 6,172,000

Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity

Total Current Liabilities385,000
Long-term Liabilities1,694,000
Total Stockholder Equity5,713,000
Total Current Liabilities
Short-term Debt 16,000
Other Current Liabilities 369,000
Total Current Liabilities  (as reported)385,000
Total Current Liabilities  (calculated)385,000
+/-0
Long-term Liabilities
Long term Debt 1,694,000
Long-term Liabilities  (as reported)1,694,000
Long-term Liabilities  (calculated)1,694,000
+/-0
Total Stockholder Equity
Common Stock1,000
Retained Earnings 6,070,000
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income -359,000
Other Stockholders Equity 1,000
Total Stockholder Equity (as reported)5,713,000
Total Stockholder Equity (calculated)5,713,000
+/-0
Other
Capital Stock1,000
Cash and Short Term Investments 8,065,000
Common Stock Shares Outstanding 59,600
Liabilities and Stockholders Equity 12,539,000
Net Debt 1,597,000
Net Invested Capital 7,407,000
Net Working Capital 7,487,000
Short Long Term Debt Total 1,694,000



Balance Sheet

Currency in USD. All numbers in thousands.

 Trend2023-12-312022-12-312021-12-312020-12-312019-12-312018-12-312017-12-312016-12-312015-12-312014-12-312013-12-312012-12-312011-12-312010-12-312009-12-312008-12-312007-12-312006-12-312005-12-312004-12-312003-12-312002-12-312001-12-312000-12-31
> Total Assets 
1,913,700
2,322,000
2,769,900
2,857,867
2,694,011
2,676,471
2,935,340
3,800,359
4,555,700
16,593,400
20,471,512
18,091,531
17,242,000
16,287,000
14,925,000
14,544,000
14,151,000
14,433,000
13,603,000
14,326,000
15,334,000
18,208,000
16,843,000
12,539,000
12,539,00016,843,00018,208,00015,334,00014,326,00013,603,00014,433,00014,151,00014,544,00014,925,00016,287,00017,242,00018,091,53120,471,51216,593,4004,555,7003,800,3592,935,3402,676,4712,694,0112,857,8672,769,9002,322,0001,913,700
   > Total Current Assets 
0
0
0
471,003
192,815
125,021
138,849
560,986,000
510,929,000
10,602,265,000
10,690,081,000
11,435,676,000
11,200,000
10,771,000
11,295,000
11,526,000
10,939,000
11,754,000
12,316,000
12,324,000
12,149,000
11,720,000
9,591,000
7,872,000
7,872,0009,591,00011,720,00012,149,00012,324,00012,316,00011,754,00010,939,00011,526,00011,295,00010,771,00011,200,00011,435,676,00010,690,081,00010,602,265,000510,929,000560,986,000138,849125,021192,815471,003000
       Cash And Cash Equivalents 
0
0
9,445
32,365
16,978
6,190
4,785
8,048
12,300
44,100
107,179
214,544
138,000
184,000
75,000
166,000
118,000
144,000
104,000
169,000
162,000
120,000
107,000
97,000
97,000107,000120,000162,000169,000104,000144,000118,000166,00075,000184,000138,000214,544107,17944,10012,3008,0484,7856,19016,97832,3659,44500
       Short-term Investments 
0
0
144,346
137,517
175,837
115,826
134,064
552,938
477,200
1,668,300
1,031,578
734,046
10,873,000
10,615,000
11,258,000
11,023,000
10,823,000
11,301,000
10,818,000
10,122,000
9,624,000
9,427,000
7,929,000
7,968,000
7,968,0007,929,0009,427,0009,624,00010,122,00010,818,00011,301,00010,823,00011,023,00011,258,00010,615,00010,873,000734,0461,031,5781,668,300477,200552,938134,064115,826175,837137,517144,34600
       Net Receivables 
0
0
0
301,121
161,039
48,366
52,454
66,763
37,100
1,418,200
1,167,587
1,079,282
1,520,000
1,086,000
958,000
928,000
1,033,000
1,552,000
1,394,000
2,033,000
2,363,000
2,173,000
1,555,000
1,766,000
1,766,0001,555,0002,173,0002,363,0002,033,0001,394,0001,552,0001,033,000928,000958,0001,086,0001,520,0001,079,2821,167,5871,418,20037,10066,76352,45448,366161,039301,121000
       Other Current Assets 
0
0
0
0
0
6,181,000
4,780,000
0
12,272,000
10,808,000
10,729,000
11,022,000
0
130,000
244,000
11,192,000
10,985,000
11,395,000
10,873,000
3,605,000
3,487,000
3,602,000
2,923,000
3,913,000
3,913,0002,923,0003,602,0003,487,0003,605,00010,873,00011,395,00010,985,00011,192,000244,000130,000011,022,00010,729,00010,808,00012,272,00004,780,0006,181,00000000
   > Long-term Assets 
0
0
0
2,276,796
125,470
112,046
125,323
232,980,000
214,535,000
1,158,205,000
1,223,958,000
770,943,000
721,000
688,000
260,000
276,000
497,000
98,000
11,387,000
11,352,000
12,036,000
15,133,000
14,304,000
6,000
6,00014,304,00015,133,00012,036,00011,352,00011,387,00098,000497,000276,000260,000688,000721,000770,943,0001,223,958,0001,158,205,000214,535,000232,980,000125,323112,046125,4702,276,796000
       Property Plant Equipment 
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
572,000
1,913,000
5,271,000
5,493,000
366,000
366,0005,493,0005,271,0001,913,000572,0000000000000000000000
       Goodwill 
0
0
87,062
87,062
85,417
85,417
85,417
85,417
85,417
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
117,000
117,000
117,000
117,000
0
0117,000117,000117,000117,000000000000085,41785,41785,41785,41785,41787,06287,06200
       Long Term Investments 
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
592,898
0
11,085,000
10,785,000
11,384,000
11,192,000
10,985,000
11,395,000
10,873,000
10,240,000
9,838,000
9,608,000
8,365,000
8,614,000
8,614,0008,365,0009,608,0009,838,00010,240,00010,873,00011,395,00010,985,00011,192,00011,384,00010,785,00011,085,0000592,8980000000000
       Intangible Assets 
0
0
87,062
87,062
85,417
85,417
85,417
85,417
85,400
0
0
0
16,000
16,000
16,000
114,000
106,000
101,000
129,000
99,000
86,000
58,000
46,000
6,000
6,00046,00058,00086,00099,000129,000101,000106,000114,00016,00016,00016,00000085,40085,41785,41785,41785,41787,06287,06200
       Long-term Assets Other 
0
0
0
-2,276,796
-2,140,888
-2,249,823
-2,465,135
82,191,691
81,700,300
-10,808,200
-10,446,893
-10,875,896
-13,561,000
-13,180,000
-12,660,000
-12,284,000
-11,699,000
-12,001,000
-11,387,000
-254,000
-217,000
-195,000
-114,000
-2,808,000
-2,808,000-114,000-195,000-217,000-254,000-11,387,000-12,001,000-11,699,000-12,284,000-12,660,000-13,180,000-13,561,000-10,875,896-10,446,893-10,808,20081,700,30082,191,691-2,465,135-2,249,823-2,140,888-2,276,796000
> Total Liabilities 
919,200
1,260,400
1,512,700
1,420,243
1,166,399
1,014,958
1,284,579
2,133,789
2,629,500
13,073,300
16,672,748
13,373,095
12,248,000
11,172,000
9,167,000
8,481,000
7,647,000
7,594,000
7,048,000
1,235,000
1,224,000
1,673,000
11,551,000
1,694,000
1,694,00011,551,0001,673,0001,224,0001,235,0007,048,0007,594,0007,647,0008,481,0009,167,00011,172,00012,248,00013,373,09516,672,74813,073,3002,629,5002,133,7891,284,5791,014,9581,166,3991,420,2431,512,7001,260,400919,200
   > Total Current Liabilities 
0
0
0
0
969,000
818,000
7,196
635,000
18,000
186,700
93,020,000
170,982
219,000
44,000
5,000
51,000
64,000
61,000
5,815,000
1,081,000
1,122,000
928,000
297,000
385,000
385,000297,000928,0001,122,0001,081,0005,815,00061,00064,00051,0005,00044,000219,000170,98293,020,000186,70018,000635,0007,196818,000969,0000000
       Short-term Debt 
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
816,000
1,297,000
1,300,000
1,306,000
1,292,000
0
20,000
20,000
23,000
23,000
16,000
16,00023,00023,00020,00020,00001,292,0001,306,0001,300,0001,297,000816,0000000000000000
       Short Long Term Debt 
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
816,000
1,297,000
1,300,000
1,306,000
1,292,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0000001,292,0001,306,0001,300,0001,297,000816,0000000000000000
       Accounts payable 
0
0
0
0
25,112
3,724
35,997
26,468
18,000
186,700
274,431
170,982
219,000
148,000
107,000
51,000
64,000
61,000
24,000
30,000
33,000
16,000
1,000
0
01,00016,00033,00030,00024,00061,00064,00051,000107,000148,000219,000170,982274,431186,70018,00026,46835,9973,72425,1120000
       Other Current Liabilities 
0
0
0
0
969,000
-25,811,000
-28,801
608,532
-18,000
-186,700
92,745,569
-170,982
-219,000
-104,000
-102,000
-51,000
-64,000
-61,000
2,303,000
1,031,000
1,069,000
846,000
273,000
369,000
369,000273,000846,0001,069,0001,031,0002,303,000-61,000-64,000-51,000-102,000-104,000-219,000-170,98292,745,569-186,700-18,000608,532-28,801-25,811,000969,0000000
   > Long-term Liabilities 
0
150,000
0
1,420,243
1,166,399
1,014,958
1,277,383
2,133,154,000
347,210
917,362,000
16,579,728,000
1,038,302,000
836,000
11,128,000
9,162,000
1,300,000
1,306,000
1,292,000
7,048,000
1,235,000
1,224,000
1,673,000
11,551,000
1,694,000
1,694,00011,551,0001,673,0001,224,0001,235,0007,048,0001,292,0001,306,0001,300,0009,162,00011,128,000836,0001,038,302,00016,579,728,000917,362,000347,2102,133,154,0001,277,3831,014,9581,166,3991,420,2430150,0000
       Long term Debt Total 
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3,515,767
0
836,000
816,000
1,303,000
1,300,000
1,306,000
1,292,000
1,233,000
1,235,000
1,224,000
1,673,000
1,675,000
0
01,675,0001,673,0001,224,0001,235,0001,233,0001,292,0001,306,0001,300,0001,303,000816,000836,00003,515,7670000000000
       Warrants
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7,000
21,000
22,000
0
0
0022,00021,0007,0000000000000000000000
       Other Liabilities 
0
0
245,388
131,949
105,336
109,707
103,883
714,959
803,123
2,548,608
2,865,713
2,063,559
2,244,000
2,150,000
1,278,000
2,688,000
2,364,000
2,536,000
2,070,000
2,350,000
3,567,000
6,163,000
5,516,000
0
05,516,0006,163,0003,567,0002,350,0002,070,0002,536,0002,364,0002,688,0001,278,0002,150,0002,244,0002,063,5592,865,7132,548,608803,123714,959103,883109,707105,336131,949245,38800
> Total Stockholder Equity
994,500
1,061,600
1,257,200
1,437,624
1,527,612
1,661,513
1,650,761
1,666,570
1,926,200
3,520,500
3,798,764
4,718,436
4,994,000
5,115,000
5,758,000
6,063,000
6,504,000
6,839,000
6,555,000
6,639,000
6,643,000
6,292,000
5,064,000
5,713,000
5,713,0005,064,0006,292,0006,643,0006,639,0006,555,0006,839,0006,504,0006,063,0005,758,0005,115,0004,994,0004,718,4363,798,7643,520,5001,926,2001,666,5701,650,7611,661,5131,527,6121,437,6241,257,2001,061,600994,500
   Common Stock
0
0
16,403
16,403
757
748
675
799
900
1,800
1,837
1,822
2,000
2,000
2,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0001,0002,0002,0002,0001,8221,8371,80090079967574875716,40316,40300
   Retained Earnings Total Equity
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,032,445
0
1,749,000
2,482,000
3,494,000
4,478,000
5,289,000
5,892,000
6,374,000
6,295,000
6,143,000
5,990,000
5,577,000
0
05,577,0005,990,0006,143,0006,295,0006,374,0005,892,0005,289,0004,478,0003,494,0002,482,0001,749,00001,032,4450000000000
   Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income 
42,300
43,300
89,000
81,185
78,960
45,832
41,883
56,629
2,900
141,800
110,645
367,499
515,000
160,000
370,000
237,000
149,000
372,000
93,000
342,000
498,000
300,000
-515,000
-359,000
-359,000-515,000300,000498,000342,00093,000372,000149,000237,000370,000160,000515,000367,499110,645141,8002,90056,62941,88345,83278,96081,18589,00043,30042,300
   Capital Surplus 
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,585,423
0
2,724,000
2,466,000
1,887,000
1,342,000
1,060,000
573,000
86,000
0
0
0
0
0
0000086,000573,0001,060,0001,342,0001,887,0002,466,0002,724,00002,585,4230000000000
   Treasury Stock0000000000000000000-7,8500000
   Other Stockholders Equity 
952,200
1,018,300
1,168,200
950,011
879,640
867,242
711,256
1,023,886
1,284,370
2,586,983
2,587,423
2,574,322
2,728,000
2,471,000
1,892,000
1,347,000
1,065,000
574,000
87,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,0001,0001,0001,0001,00087,000574,0001,065,0001,347,0001,892,0002,471,0002,728,0002,574,3222,587,4232,586,9831,284,3701,023,886711,256867,242879,640950,0111,168,2001,018,300952,200



Balance Sheet

Currency in USD. All numbers in thousands.




Cash Flow

Currency in USD. All numbers in thousands.




Income Statement

Currency in USD. All numbers in thousands.


Latest Income Statement (annual, 2023-12-31)

Gross Profit (+$)
totalRevenue1,038,000
Cost of Revenue-217,000
Gross Profit1,038,000821,000
 
Operating Income (+$)
Gross Profit1,038,000
Operating Expense-473,000
Operating Income515,000565,000
 
Operating Expense (+$)
Research Development0
Selling General Administrative268,000
Selling And Marketing Expenses0
Operating Expense473,000268,000
 
Net Interest Income (+$)
Interest Income0
Interest Expense-88,000
Other Finance Cost-0
Net Interest Income-88,000
 
Pretax Income (+$)
Operating Income515,000
Net Interest Income-88,000
Other Non-Operating Income Expenses0
Income Before Tax (EBT)565,000472,000
EBIT - interestExpense = 427,000
558,000
545,000
Interest Expense88,000
Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT)515,000653,000
Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBITDA)646,000
 
After tax Income (+$)
Income Before Tax565,000
Tax Provision-101,000
Net Income From Continuing Ops464,000464,000
Net Income457,000
Net Income Applicable To Common Shares0
 
Non-recurring Events
Discontinued Operations0
Extraordinary Items0
Effect of Accounting Charges0
Other Items0
Non Recurring0
Other Operating Expenses473,000
Total Other Income/Expenses Net43,00088,000
 

Technical Analysis of Assured Guaranty Ltd
The psychology behind the price

Technical indicators reflecting market sentiment and the collective psychology of you and other traders. Your emotions and other traders' emotions, such as fear and greed, play a significant role in driving price movements.

General trend

First of all, I'm going to put something in the back of your mind. One of the most stable factors that gives you more confidence as a trader: the general trend of Assured Guaranty Ltd. The general trend of Assured Guaranty Ltd is NEUTRAL with 0.0% confidence. It is very important for your mental being to use each indicator with this in mind. But beware, also the general trend flips once in a while! You can use moving averages to determine Assured Guaranty Ltd's overall trend. For convenience I use the most commonly used moving averages: 20, 50, 100 & 200. Of course you can use other moving averages or other indicators to determine the trend.

Indicator phases

Some of the indicators I use have 3 zones: overbought, oversold and neutral. Transitions between these zones (market phases) provide valuable trading signals and insights. Expecially with the general trend mind, I use the highlighted phases:

Indicator zone transitionsBullish trend (0.0%) Bearish trend (0.0%)
Overbought to neutralBullish pullback=Bearish reversal
Upper to lower neutralBullish correction=Bearish continuation
Nuetral to oversoldOversold=Oversold
Oversold to neutralBullish reversal=Bearish correction
Lower to upper neutralBullish continuation=Bearish pullback
Nuetral to overboughtOverbought=Overbought

1. Price Targets

1.1 Support & Resistance

Support and resistance are levels on a price chart that act as barriers or zones where the price of an asset tends to stop, reverse, or experience a significant amount of buying or selling pressure.

Support is a price level at which demand for an asset is strong enough to prevent the price from falling further.
Resistance is a price level at which selling pressure becomes significant enough to prevent the price of an asset from rising further.


Score

Let's take a look at the Support & Resistance of Assured Guaranty Ltd.

The long score for the Support & Resistance is 0/1.
The longshort score for the Support & Resistance is 0/(-1 +1).

  • Between support/resistance: The price is trading between support and resistance lines.

The bullish price targets are: 80.88 < 88.84 < 93.19.

The bearish price targets are: 75.93 > 75.43 > 65.36.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd Daily Support & Resistance Chart

2. Trend Indicators

2.1 Moving Averages

Shows the moving average of the selected period.

  • Moving averages are lagging trend indicators.
  • There are many types of moving averages.
  • Moving averages are also used within other indicators.

Score

Let's take a look at the Moving Averages of Assured Guaranty Ltd. The current mas is .

The long score for the Moving Averages is 7/14.
The longshort score for the Moving Averages is 0/(-14 +14).

  • MA 20 trending down: The MA 20 is trending down. -1
  • Close < MA 20: The price is below the MA 20. -1
  • MA 20 < MA 50: The MA 20 is lower than the MA 50. -1
  • MA 20 < MA 100: The MA 20 is lower than the MA 100. -1
  • MA 20 > MA 200: The MA 20 is higher than the MA 200. +1
  • MA 50 trending down: The MA 50 is trending down. -1
  • Close < MA 50: The price is below the MA 50. -1
  • MA 50 > MA 100: The MA 50 is higher than the MA 100. +1
  • MA 50 > MA 200: The MA 50 is higher than the MA 200. +1
  • MA 100 trending up: The MA 100 is trending up. +1
  • Close < MA 100: The price is below the MA 100. -1
  • MA 100 > MA 200: The MA 100 is higher than the MA 200. +1
  • MA 200 trending up: The MA 200 is trending up. +1
  • Close > MA 200: The price is above the MA 200. +1

Directionalities and relatives.

Moving AverageAmount of candlesTrendPrice +/-vs. MA 50vs. MA 100vs. MA 200
MA 2020
MA 5050-
MA 100100--
MA 200200---

Explanation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwW8h0lrQ-I

Assured Guaranty Ltd Daily Moving Averages Chart
2.2 Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)

Shows the momentum of the selected period based on two moving averages.

  • MACD is a lagging momentum indicator.
  • Uses two moving averages.
  • Can show buy or sell signals based on momentum.
  • Can show overbought. and oversold. levels.

Score

Let's take a look at the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) of Assured Guaranty Ltd. The current macd is -2.36201137.

The long score for the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is 3/4.
The longshort score for the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is 2/(-4 +4).

  • MACD line > signal line: The MACD line is above the signal line, which indicates a bullish signal in the market. This means that the positive momentum is currently stronger than the average momentum, suggesting that buyers are more active than sellers, and there's a higher probability of the Assured Guaranty Ltd price going up in the near term. +2
  • MACD < 0: The MACD is below the zero line (centerline), it indicates a bearish signal for Assured Guaranty Ltd. This means that the short-term moving average is lower than the long-term moving average, signaling negative momentum and suggesting a higher likelihood of the Assured Guaranty Ltd price continuing to fall in the near future. It indicates that sellers are gaining control, and there is negativism in the market, leading to potential price decreases. -1
  • Trending up: The MACD line is trending up. This indicates that the short-term moving average is rising faster than the long-term moving average, suggesting positive momentum in the market. This signals that buyers are becoming more active and confident, leading to potential price increases as traders anticipate further gains and are willing to buy at higher prices. +1
Assured Guaranty Ltd Daily Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) ChartAssured Guaranty Ltd Daily Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) Chart
2.3 Directional Movement Index (DMI)

The DMI is a collection of 3 indicators: +DI (Plus Direction Indicator), -DI (Minus Direction Indicator) and ADX (Average Directional Index). The ADX helps you determine the strength of a trend.


Score

Let's take a look at the Directional Movement Index (DMI) of Assured Guaranty Ltd. The current adx is 44.16.

The long score for the Directional Movement Index (DMI) is 0/7.
The longshort score for the Directional Movement Index (DMI) is -4/(-7 +7).

  • PLUS_ID < MINUS_DI: The +DI line is below the -DI line. This indicates a bearish signal in the market, as the negative directional movement is currently stronger than the positive directional movement, showing that sellers have the upper hand. Market psychology suggests that traders are pessimistic, expecting further price decreases, and are more willing to sell Assured Guaranty Ltd shares, leading to potential downward momentum in its price. -1
  • PLUS_ID < MINUS_DI && ADX > 25 && ADX trending up: The ADX is above 25 and indicates a strong bearish trend. The ADX is trending up, so the bearish trend is strengthening.
Assured Guaranty Ltd Daily Directional Movement Index (DMI) Chart
2.4 Parabolic SAR

Shows the current trend and potential entry and exit signals.

  • Parabolic SAR (stop and reverse) is a lagging trend indicator.
  • Shows the current trend.
  • Shows potential entry signals.
  • Shows  potential exit signals.
  • Can be used to place trailing stoplosses..

Score

Let's take a look at the Parabolic SAR of Assured Guaranty Ltd. The current sar is 76.27.

The long score for the Parabolic SAR is 1/1.
The longshort score for the Parabolic SAR is 1/(-1 +1).

  • Close > SAR: The price is above the SAR. It's generally considered a bullish signal. +1
Assured Guaranty Ltd Daily Parabolic SAR Chart

3. Momentum Indicators

3.1 Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Measures the speed and change of price movements.

  • Leading momentum indicator, meaning the signals are instant.
  • Ranges between 0 and 100.
  • Above 70 is considered overbought.
  • Below 30 is considered oversold.
  • Above or below 50 can also be used to determine price trend or support and resistance.
  • RSI divergence looks at a deviation between RSI and price movement. Penketrading automatically calculates RSI divergences.
  • Can be used in many different ways

Score

Let's take a look at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of Assured Guaranty Ltd. The current rsi is 35.15. The current phase is Continuation in bear market.

The long score for the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 1/13.
The longshort score for the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is -2/(-13 +13).

  • Continuation in bear market: Downtrend continues after a consolidation or pullback. Hold or add to short positions.
  • Trending up: The RSI is trending up. +1
Assured Guaranty Ltd Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) ChartAssured Guaranty Ltd Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) Chart
3.2 Stochastic Oscillator

Compares a certain price to multiple prices ranging over time.

  • Leading momentum indicator, meaning the signals are instant.
  • Used to determine overbought and oversold areas much like the RSI.
  • Ranges between 0 and 100.
  • Above 80 is considered overbought.
  • Below 20 is considered oversold.
  • Consists of two lines named K and D.
  • K compares the highest high and lowest low on the selected price range.
  • The D line is a moving average of the K line.
  • Can be used to spot divergences

Score

Let's take a look at the Stochastic Oscillator of Assured Guaranty Ltd. The current phase is Continuation in bear market.

The long score for the Stochastic Oscillator is 3/6.
The longshort score for the Stochastic Oscillator is 2/(-6 +6).

  • STOCH < 50: The STOCH %K is below 50. There are more sellers than buyers. -1
  • STOCH %K line > STOCH %D line: The STOCH %K line is above the STOCH %D line, which indicates a bullish signal in the market. This means that the positive momentum is currently stronger than the average momentum, suggesting that buyers are more active than sellers, and there's a higher probability of the Assured Guaranty Ltd price going up in the near term. +2
  • Trending up: The STOCH %K is trending up. +1
Assured Guaranty Ltd Daily Stochastic Oscillator ChartAssured Guaranty Ltd Daily Stochastic Oscillator Chart
3.3 Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

Measures the difference between the current price and the historical average price.

  • Lagging or leading Momentum indicator
  • When the CCI is above zero, the price is above the historical average
  • When the CCI is below zero, the price is below the historical average
  • Used for spotting trends
    • If the CCI moves from negative or near zero to positive 100 that might indicate an uptrend
    • If the CCI moves from positive or near zero to negative -100 that might indicate a downtrend

Score

Let's take a look at the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of Assured Guaranty Ltd. The current cci is -62.75388568.

Assured Guaranty Ltd Daily Commodity Channel Index (CCI) ChartAssured Guaranty Ltd Daily Commodity Channel Index (CCI) Chart
3.4 Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO)

Measures the difference between the sum of recent gains and the sum of recent losses. Then divides the result by the sum of all price movements in that period.

  • Lagging momentum indicator
  • Ranges between +100 and -100
  • Considered overbought above +50
  • Considered oversold below -50
  • It's possible to add a moving average that acts as a signal line

Score

Let's take a look at the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) of Assured Guaranty Ltd. The current cmo is -25.68578347.

The long score for the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) is 0/1.
The longshort score for the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) is -1/(-1 +1).

  • CMO < 0: The CMO is below 0, the momentum of the price is negative, indicating a potential downtrend in the price. -1
Assured Guaranty Ltd Daily Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) ChartAssured Guaranty Ltd Daily Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) Chart
3.5 Williams %R

 Shows the current price relative to the highest high over the last 14 days.
 

  • Lagging momentum indicator
  • Ranging between 0 and -100
  • Above -20 is considered overbought
  • Below -80 is considered oversold
  • Is prone to give false signals

Score

Let's take a look at the Williams %R of Assured Guaranty Ltd. The current willr is -68.63649324.

The long score for the Williams %R is 0/1.
The longshort score for the Williams %R is 0/(-1 +1).

  • WILLR between -80 and -20: The Williams %R is between -80 and -20. This indicates that Assured Guaranty Ltd is trading in a neutral price range, neither oversold nor overbought, suggesting a balanced market condition without any extreme price signals.
Assured Guaranty Ltd Daily Williams %R ChartAssured Guaranty Ltd Daily Williams %R Chart

4. Volatility Indicators

4.1 Bollinger Bands

Shows if the price is to high or to low relative to an average.

  • Lagging volatility indicator
  • Uses 3 bands: one upper, one lower and one in the middle
  • Works best when the middle band reflects an intermediate trend (MA20).
  • When the price is moving closer to the upper band, the market might be overbought
  • When the price is moving closer to the lower band, the market might be oversold 

Score

Let's take a look at the Bollinger Bands of Assured Guaranty Ltd.

Assured Guaranty Ltd Daily Bollinger Bands Chart
4.2 Average True Range (ATR)
Measures market volatility
  • Leading volatility indicator
  • Can be used to determine stop-loss positions
  • Calculated by:
    • Current high minus the current low
    • Current high minus the previous close
    • Current low minus the previous close
  • The larger the range of the candles, the greater the ATR value

Score

Let's take a look at the Average True Range (ATR) of Assured Guaranty Ltd. The current atr is 1.66616124.

Assured Guaranty Ltd Daily Average True Range (ATR) ChartAssured Guaranty Ltd Daily Average True Range (ATR) Chart

5. Volume Indicators

5.1 On-Balance Volume (OBV)

 Measures market volatility

  • Leading momentum indicator
  • Calculation:
    • If the closing price is above the previous closing price: OBV = previous OBV + current volume
    • If the closing price is below the previous closing price: OBV = previous OBV - current volume
    • If the closing price is the same as the previous closing price than the OBV is the same.
  • Can be used to confirm price trends
  • Can be used with divergences

Score

Let's take a look at the On-Balance Volume (OBV) of Assured Guaranty Ltd. The current obv is 13,960,312.

Assured Guaranty Ltd Daily On-Balance Volume (OBV) ChartAssured Guaranty Ltd Daily On-Balance Volume (OBV) Chart
5.2 Money Flow Index (MFI)

Measures the flow of money in and out of a security

  • Lagging momentum indicator
  • Looks like RSI but uses volume as an extra metric (RSI only considers price)
  • Above 80 is considered overbought
  • Below 20 is considered oversold
  • Can be used with divergences

Score

Let's take a look at the Money Flow Index (MFI) of Assured Guaranty Ltd. The current mfi is 32.09.

The long score for the Money Flow Index (MFI) is 0/2.
The longshort score for the Money Flow Index (MFI) is -1/(-2 +2).

  • MFI < 50: -1
Assured Guaranty Ltd Daily Money Flow Index (MFI) ChartAssured Guaranty Ltd Daily Money Flow Index (MFI) Chart

6. Summary

6.1. Notifications

TypeNotificationDate
PenkeCurrently no notifications for Assured Guaranty Ltd.

6.2. Trading Signals

Below you will find trading signals as the indicator is commonly used. This doesn't mean you should use it that way. Learn from these, but don't use them blindly. I recommend using at least 4 indicators, 1 from each category: trend, momentum, volatility and volume.

DateIndicatorSignal
2023-12-05STOCH LONG EXITThe %K line crosses below the %D line.
2023-12-06MACD SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSEThe MACD line crosses below the signal line.
2023-12-07SAR SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSEThe price broke the SAR to the downside
STOCH SHORT EXITThe %K line crosses above the %D line.
2023-12-08MACD LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSEThe MACD line crosses above the signal line.
SAR LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSEThe price broke the SAR to the upside.
CCI LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSE100 crossover to upside
WILLR LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSE-20 crossover to upside
BB SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSEPrice closed above the lower band.
ATR LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSEPrice closed above (close + ATR).
2023-12-14STOCH LONG EXITThe %K line crosses below the %D line.
2023-12-15RSI SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSE70 crossover to downside
2023-12-19STOCH SHORT EXITThe %K line crosses above the %D line.
CCI LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSE100 crossover to upside
WILLR LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSE-20 crossover to upside
2023-12-20STOCH LONG EXITThe %K line crosses below the %D line.
2023-12-21STOCH SHORT EXITThe %K line crosses above the %D line.
2023-12-22CCI LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSE100 crossover to upside
2023-12-26STOCH LONG EXITThe %K line crosses below the %D line.
2023-12-27STOCH SHORT EXITThe %K line crosses above the %D line.
2023-12-29STOCH LONG EXITThe %K line crosses below the %D line.
2024-01-03MACD SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSEThe MACD line crosses below the signal line.
2024-01-04STOCH SHORT EXITThe %K line crosses above the %D line.
WILLR LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSE-20 crossover to upside
2024-01-05CCI LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSE100 crossover to upside
2024-01-08MFI LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSE80 crossover to upside
2024-01-09SAR SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSEThe price broke the SAR to the downside
RSI SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSE70 crossover to downside
STOCH LONG EXITThe %K line crosses below the %D line.
MFI SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSE80 crossover to downside
2024-01-12RSI SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSE70 crossover to downside
2024-01-17STOCH SHORT EXITThe %K line crosses above the %D line.
2024-01-18SAR LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSEThe price broke the SAR to the upside.
CCI LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSE100 crossover to upside
WILLR LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSE-20 crossover to upside
BB SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSEPrice closed above the lower band.
ATR LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSEPrice closed above (close + ATR).
2024-01-19MACD LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSEThe MACD line crosses above the signal line.
ATR LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSEPrice closed above (close + ATR).
2024-01-22STOCH LONG EXITThe %K line crosses below the %D line.
ATR LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSEPrice closed above (close + ATR).
MFI LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSE80 crossover to upside
2024-01-24STOCH SHORT EXITThe %K line crosses above the %D line.
2024-01-29MFI SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSE80 crossover to downside
2024-01-30STOCH LONG EXITThe %K line crosses below the %D line.
MFI LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSE80 crossover to upside
2024-01-31RSI SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSE70 crossover to downside
ATR SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSEPrice closed below (close - ATR).
MFI SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSE80 crossover to downside
2024-02-01MACD SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSEThe MACD line crosses below the signal line.
SAR SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSEThe price broke the SAR to the downside
2024-02-02STOCH SHORT EXITThe %K line crosses above the %D line.
WILLR LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSE-20 crossover to upside
2024-02-05SAR LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSEThe price broke the SAR to the upside.
2024-02-06RSI SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSE70 crossover to downside
STOCH LONG EXITThe %K line crosses below the %D line.
ATR SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSEPrice closed below (close - ATR).
2024-02-09STOCH SHORT EXITThe %K line crosses above the %D line.
2024-02-13WILLR LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSE-20 crossover to upside
2024-02-14CCI LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSE100 crossover to upside
ATR LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSEPrice closed above (close + ATR).
2024-02-15STOCH LONG EXITThe %K line crosses below the %D line.
BB SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSEPrice closed above the lower band.
2024-02-16RSI SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSE70 crossover to downside
2024-02-21STOCH SHORT EXITThe %K line crosses above the %D line.
WILLR LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSE-20 crossover to upside
BB SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSEPrice closed above the lower band.
2024-02-23STOCH LONG EXITThe %K line crosses below the %D line.
2024-02-26STOCH SHORT EXITThe %K line crosses above the %D line.
2024-02-28MACD LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSEThe MACD line crosses above the signal line.
STOCH LONG EXITThe %K line crosses below the %D line.
BB SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSEPrice closed above the lower band.
ATR LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSEPrice closed above (close + ATR).
MFI LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSE80 crossover to upside
2024-02-29ATR SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSEPrice closed below (close - ATR).
MFI SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSE80 crossover to downside
2024-03-04RSI SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSE70 crossover to downside
2024-03-06STOCH SHORT EXITThe %K line crosses above the %D line.
2024-03-08SAR SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSEThe price broke the SAR to the downside
STOCH LONG EXITThe %K line crosses below the %D line.
2024-03-11MACD SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSEThe MACD line crosses below the signal line.
2024-03-12STOCH SHORT EXITThe %K line crosses above the %D line.
2024-03-14STOCH LONG EXITThe %K line crosses below the %D line.
2024-03-15STOCH SHORT EXITThe %K line crosses above the %D line.
2024-03-18STOCH LONG EXITThe %K line crosses below the %D line.
2024-03-19STOCH SHORT EXITThe %K line crosses above the %D line.
2024-03-20WILLR LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSE-20 crossover to upside
2024-03-21STOCH LONG EXITThe %K line crosses below the %D line.
2024-03-22CMO SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSEZero line crossover to downside
WILLR SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSE-80 crossover to downside
ATR SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSEPrice closed below (close - ATR).
2024-03-26STOCH SHORT EXITThe %K line crosses above the %D line.
CCI SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSE-100 crossover to downside
2024-03-27DMI SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSEThe +DI crossed the -DI to the downside. The trend is reversing to a down trend.
STOCH LONG EXITThe %K line crosses below the %D line.
WILLR SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSE-80 crossover to downside
BB LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSEPrice closed below the lower band.
ATR SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSEPrice closed below (close - ATR).
2024-04-02STOCH SHORT EXITThe %K line crosses above the %D line.
2024-04-03STOCH LONG EXITThe %K line crosses below the %D line.
2024-04-05STOCH SHORT EXITThe %K line crosses above the %D line.
2024-04-08STOCH LONG EXITThe %K line crosses below the %D line.
2024-04-09MFI SHORT ENTRY LONG CLOSE20 crossover to downside
2024-04-12STOCH SHORT EXITThe %K line crosses above the %D line.
2024-04-16STOCH LONG EXITThe %K line crosses below the %D line.
2024-04-18STOCH SHORT EXITThe %K line crosses above the %D line.
2024-04-19MFI LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSE20 crossover to upside
2024-04-23SAR LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSEThe price broke the SAR to the upside.
RSI LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSE30 crossover to upside
2024-04-25STOCH LONG EXITThe %K line crosses below the %D line.
2024-04-26MACD LONG ENTRY SHORT CLOSEThe MACD line crosses above the signal line.
STOCH SHORT EXITThe %K line crosses above the %D line.

6.3. Candlestick Patterns

Assured Guaranty Ltd Daily Candlestick Chart
DateCandlestick Pattern

6.4. Technical Score

Let's check the technical score of Assured Guaranty Ltd based on Penke's default Symbol scanner.

Penke's Symbol Scanner

  
  
IndicatorConditionValue
RsiGreater than5035.147
Ma 20Greater thanMa 5080.411
Ma 50Greater thanMa 10085.648
Ma 100Greater thanMa 20081.173
OpenGreater thanClose77.440
Total2/5 (40.0%)
Penke

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