First Trust Low Duration Global Government Bond UCITS ETF

Check the daily chart of First Trust Low Duration Global Government Bond UCITS ETF. The closing price of 2023-06-01 was EUR 16.95 per share.

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Technicals of First Trust Low Duration Global Government Bond UCITS ETF

1. Trend Indicators

1.1 Moving Averages

Shows the moving average of the selected period.

Moving averages are lagging trend indicators.
There are many types of moving averages.
Moving averages are also used within other indicators.

Directionalities and relatives.

Moving Average	Amount of candles	vs. MA 50	vs. MA 100	vs. MA 200
MA 20	20
MA 50	50	-
MA 100	100	-	-
MA 200	200	-	-	-

Explanation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwW8h0lrQ-I

Shows the moving average of the selected period.

There are four types of indicators:

Trend indicators
Momentum indicators
Volatility indicators
Volume indicators

There are various kinds of moving averages:

Simple moving average (SMA);
Exponential moving average (EMA);
Smoothed moving average (SMMA);
Linear weighted moving average (LWMA).

The moving average looks at a certain period of time and it calculates the price average. The various types of averages are using various formulas. Don’t worry, you don’t have to memorize any formula. All moving averages are calculated automatically by basically every charting software you use. But it’s good to know how moving averages are actually calculated.

Simple moving average

SMA is calculated by summing up the price closures of the selected period. The price is then divided by the selected period. For example, when using the 21 day moving average you sum up all the closing prices for each day and divide that by 21. The result is a line on the chart representing the average. Because it’s an average in the selected timeframe, the trend is always lagging. An moving average looks like this on the chart:

Source: Tradingview.com

In this case, the blue line represents a 21 day moving average. Because the average is based on results from the past, the indicator will always lag behind. For example, when price would suddenly go up, the moving average won't immediately follow.

All other moving averages discussed below look the same on the chart. The only difference is that the line will move in different directions based on the maths behind the used indicators and the amount of days used to determine the average.

Exponential moving average

The EMA gives more weight to the latest closing prices by giving them more value in the equation. EMA is calculated by adding a certain percentage to the latest closing prices:

EMA = (CLOSE (i) * P) + (EMA (i - 1) * (1 - P))

Where:

CLOSE (i) = current period close price.
EMA (i - 1) = value of the Moving Average of a preceding period.
P = the percentage of using the price value.

Smoothed moving average

A smoothed moving average is an exponential moving average with a long lookback period. Older prices are reduced in weight but are never left out in the calculation. Unlike SMA and EMA where prices are removed when they are beyond the selected period. SMMA is a combination of the SMA and EMA. The main advantage is that it smooths out fluctuations in price.

Linear weighted moving average

The LWMA gives the latest price the highest weight and then lineary scales down with each price before that. The result is that the LWMA reacts quicker to changes in price than the SMA or EMA. The formula:

LWMA = ((Pn∗W1)+(Pn−1∗W2)+(Pn−2∗W3)...) / ∑W

Where:

P = Price for the period.
n = The most recent period, n-1 is the prior period, and n-2 is two periods prior.
W = The assigned weight to each period, with the highest weight going first and then descending linearly based on the number of periods being used.

Moving averages are widely used by many traders. Which moving average you need depends on your trading strategy. Common practise is using a combination of multiple periods. For example, the EMA21, EMA50, EMA100 and EMA200. How does that look on a chart:

Source: Tradingview.com

The lowest (purple) line on the chart represents the EMA200 then following up the EMA100, EMA50 and EMA21.

You can use moving averages to determine a trend. The 200 moving average is mostly used as a baseline for determining the current trend:

When the 200 moving average is moving up it is considered a bullish trend.
When the 200 moving average is down it is considered a bearish trend.
When moving averages are flatlined, there is no clear trend so you should look for market structure, consolidation or trend reversals. Depending on how you want to trade.

This is not set in stone. Most trading strategies use multiple moving averages each with different settings. While one strategy might use the EMA20, the other uses the SMA21. There can be hundreds of different variations. Moving averages can also be used as support and resistance. More often than not, prices will bounce on moving averages.

First Trust Low Duration Global Government Bond UCITS ETF Daily Moving Averages Chart

1.2 Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)

Shows the momentum of the selected period based on two moving averages.

MACD is a lagging momentum indicator.
Uses two moving averages.
Can show buy or sell signals based on momentum.
Can show overbought. and oversold. levels.

Let's take a look of the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) of First Trust Low Duration Global Government Bond UCITS ETF:

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is 0.003. The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) above zero is a bullish sign. +1
The MACD is higher than the signal line. This is a bullish indication. +1

First Trust Low Duration Global Government Bond UCITS ETF Daily Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) Chart

1.3 Directional Movement Index (DMI)

The DMI is a collection of 3 indicators: +DI (Plus Direction Indicator), -DI (Minus Direction Indicator) and ADX (Average Directional Index).

The ADX helps you determine the strength of a trend. Let's take a look of the ADX of First Trust Low Duration Global Government Bond UCITS ETF:

The ADX is 16.715. Not trending. -2
The ADX is declining, there is no upcoming trend indication. -1
The +DI is higher than the -DI. The current trend is up. +2

First Trust Low Duration Global Government Bond UCITS ETF Daily Directional Movement Index (DMI) Chart

1.4 Parabolic SAR

Shows the current trend and potential entry and exit signals.

Parabolic SAR (stop and reverse) is a lagging trend indicator.
Shows the current trend.
Shows potential entry signals.
Shows potential exit signals.
Can be used to place trailing stoplosses..

The Parabolic SAR is lower than the price. The current trend is up. +2

First Trust Low Duration Global Government Bond UCITS ETF Daily Parabolic SAR Chart

2. Momentum Indicators

2.1 Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Measures the speed and change of price movements.

Leading momentum indicator, meaning the signals are instant.
Ranges between 0 and 100.
Above 70 is considered overbought.
Below 30 is considered oversold.
Above or below 50 can also be used to determine price trend or support and resistance.
RSI divergence looks at a deviation between RSI and price movement. Penketrading automatically calculates RSI divergences.
Can be used in many different ways

The RSI is above 50. +1

Measures the speed and change of price movements.

There are four types of indicators:

Trend indicators
Momentum indicators
Volatility indicators
Volume indicators

The RSI measures the magnitude of recent price changes to determine if the asset is overbought or oversold.

Overbought (RSI above 70) means that the trading price is above its intrinsic value. This might indicate a sell or short signal.
Oversold (RSI below 30) means that the trading price is below its intrinsic value. This might indicate a buy or long signal.
RSI levels above or below 50 can also be used to determine a trend.
RSI divergence looks at a deviation between RSI and price movement.
Can be used in many different ways.

Original usage

Keep in mind that almost every indicator can be used in different ways. Even beyond the orginal settings. The relative strength index was developed by J. Welles Wilder. Wilder recommended a smoothing period of 14 days. That means a 14 day moving average (read more about this setting below). Another quote from the wikipedia page:

Wilders also considers the RSI 50 line as both support and resistance. I recommend to always read the original settings first before using an indicator. Many traders and websites are using their own version of the indicator which might be confusing.

How you can use RSI (Divergence)

First and foremost, there is no real right or wrong usage of the RSI indicator. You can use it in any way you want. Wilder recommends using a 14 day average but you can make it 50 or 100 if you like. Just keep in mind that using an indicator is just part of a larger trading plan. In other words, it’s not recommended to do any trading or investing based on a single indicator like the RSI.

The RSI is measured on a scale between 0 and 100. From 30 till 0 is considered oversold. and from 70 -100 is overbought. The RSI is a leading indicator, meaning the signals are instant.

I like to use the RSI as a trend\momentum indicator and not as an overbought or oversold indicator. I use the middle (50) as the baseline. When prices go above RSI 50 the trend is bullish and can indicate long positions. When below 50 it is considered bearish and can indicate short positions. Other traders use the 70 and 30 levels as overbought/oversold depending on the used strategy. The RSI indicator looks like this:

Source: Tradingview.com

The general concensus is that an RSI above 70 indicates that the security is overbought. In other words, the price this security is trading for is to high and should come down. So if RSI hits 70 or above this might indicate a sell signal or taking a short position (expecting the price will go down). Although RSI above 70 indicates the security is trading above it's fair value, that does not mean the price will go down.

Use tradingview to add indicators

I highly recommend using tradingview to add indicators to a chart. It has all the indicators you can think off and can add them for free (up to three indicators) to any chart you want. You can see that the levels 30 and 70 are marked with a dotted line. If you want you can remove these lines or give it another colour using Tradingview. You can also adjust the moving average used. You can also find RSI indicators made by the community that include other settings like RSI divergences.

Tradingview

Use Tradingview to (back)test your strategies and add hundreds of indicators created by the community.

View tool on Tradingview.com

RSI divergence

RSI is not only used to determine momentum but can also spot reversals or continuations of the trend. A reversal means that the trend is going in the opposite direction. From bullish to bearish or from bearish to bullish. These reversals can be spotted by looking at the price and the direction of the RSI. When the price is going up but the RSI is going down that means there is a divergence. This is also the case when RSI goes up but price is going down.

There are four types of divergences:

Regular bullish divergence
Regular bearish divergence
Hidden bullish divergence
Hidden bearish divergence

Regular bullish divergence

With a regular bullish divergence, the price is making lower highs but the oscillator (in this case the RSI) is making higher lows. A regular bullish divergence might indicate the end of the current trend. You’ll see regular bullish divergences mostly at the end of a downtrend. But that does not mean that every regular bullish divergence is a trend reversal.

Price is making lower highs
RSI is making higher lows
Indicating bullish reversal (price might go up)

Source: Tradingview.com

Regular bearish divergence

With a regular bearish divergence the price is making higher highs but the oscillator (in this case the RSI) is making lower highs. This might indicate the end of an uptrend.

Price is making higher highs
RSI is making lower highs
Indicating bearish reversal

Source: Tradingview.com

Hidden bullish divergence

With a hidden bullish divergence, the price is making a higher low while the RSI is making a lower low. This might indicate bullish trend continuation.

Price is making higher lows
RSI is making lower lows
Indicating bullish continuation

Source: Tradingview.com

As you have noticed, you can have multiple divergences in a row.

Hidden bearish divergence

With a hidden bearish divergence, price is making lower highs but RSI is making higher highs. This might indicate bearish trend continuation.

Price is making lower highs
RSI making higher highs
Indicating bearish continuation

Source: Tradingview.com

You can find many cheatsheets of RSI divergences online. Search for "RSI divergence overview" and you'll find a lot of examples. You can print these to learn the various types of divergences.

First Trust Low Duration Global Government Bond UCITS ETF Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) Chart

2.2 Stochastic Oscillator

Compares a certain price to multiple prices ranging over time.

Leading momentum indicator, meaning the signals are instant.
Used to determine overbought and oversold areas much like the RSI.
Ranges between 0 and 100.
Above 80 is considered overbought.
Below 20 is considered oversold.
Consists of two lines named K and D.
K compares the highest high and lowest low on the selected price range.
The D line is a moving average of the K line.
Can be used to spot divergences

The Stochastic is above 50. +1
The Stochastic is above 70 and overbought. +2

First Trust Low Duration Global Government Bond UCITS ETF Daily Stochastic Oscillator Chart

2.3 Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

First Trust Low Duration Global Government Bond UCITS ETF Daily Commodity Channel Index (CCI) Chart

2.4 Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO)

First Trust Low Duration Global Government Bond UCITS ETF Daily Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) Chart

2.5 Williams %R

First Trust Low Duration Global Government Bond UCITS ETF Daily Williams %R Chart

3. Volatility Indicators

3.1 Bollinger Bands

First Trust Low Duration Global Government Bond UCITS ETF Daily Bollinger Bands Chart

3.2 Average True Range (ATR)

First Trust Low Duration Global Government Bond UCITS ETF Daily Average True Range (ATR) Chart

4. Volume Indicators

4.1 On-Balance Volume (OBV)

First Trust Low Duration Global Government Bond UCITS ETF Daily On-Balance Volume (OBV) Chart

4.2 Money Flow Index (MFI)

First Trust Low Duration Global Government Bond UCITS ETF Daily Money Flow Index (MFI) Chart

5. Summary

5.1. Notifications

Type	Notification	Date
Golden Cross	Golden Cross	2023-06-01

5.2. Trading Signals

Date	Indicator	Entry signal	Exit signal
2023-05-19	WILLR	LONG ENTRY	SHORT CLOSE	-20 crossover to upside
2023-05-22	MFI	20 crossover to upside
2023-05-23	MACD	SHORT ENTRY	LONG CLOSE
2023-05-24	SAR	LONG ENTRY	SHORT CLOSE	price crossed sar to upside
	STOCH	LONG ENTRY	SHORT CLOSE	20 crossover to upside
	ATR	LONG ENTRY	SHORT CLOSE
2023-05-29	DMI	SHORT ENTRY	LONG CLOSE
	STOCH	SHORT ENTRY	LONG CLOSE	80 crossover to downside
	CCI	SHORT ENTRY	LONG CLOSE	-100 crossover to downside
	WILLR	SHORT ENTRY	LONG CLOSE	-80 crossover to downside
	ATR	SHORT ENTRY	LONG CLOSE
	MFI	20 crossover to downside
2023-05-30	MACD	LONG ENTRY	SHORT CLOSE
	SAR	SHORT ENTRY	LONG CLOSE	price crossed sar to downside

5.2. Technical Score

Let's check the technical score of First Trust Low Duration Global Government Bond UCITS ETF based on Penke's default Symbol scanner.

Penke's Symbol Scanner

Indicator	Condition		Value
Rsi	Greater than	50	55.049
Ma 20	Greater than	Ma 50	16.911
Ma 50	Greater than	Ma 100	16.907
Ma 100	Greater than	Ma 200	16.905
Open	Greater than	Close	16.940
Total			3/5 (60.0%)

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