U.S. 5 Year Treasury
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Technical Analysis of U.S. 5 Year Treasury
The psychology behind the price
Technical indicators reflecting market sentiment and the collective psychology of you and other traders. Your emotions and other traders' emotions, such as fear and greed, play a significant role in driving price movements.
General trend
First of all, I'm going to put something in the back of your mind. One of the most stable factors that gives you more confidence as a trader: the general trend of U.S. 5 Year Treasury. The general trend of U.S. 5 Year Treasury is BULLISH with 28.6% confidence. It is very important for your mental being to use each indicator with this in mind. But beware, also the general trend flips once in a while! You can use moving averages to determine U.S. 5 Year Treasury's overall trend. For convenience I use the most commonly used moving averages: 20, 50, 100 & 200. Of course you can use other moving averages or other indicators to determine the trend.
Indicator phases
Some of the indicators I use have 3 zones: overbought, oversold and neutral. Transitions between these zones (market phases) provide valuable trading signals and insights. Expecially with the general trend mind, I use the highlighted phases:
| Indicator zone transitions | Bullish trend (28.6%) | Bearish trend (-28.6%) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overbought to neutral | Bullish pullback | = | Bearish reversal |
| Upper to lower neutral | Bullish correction | = | Bearish continuation |
| Nuetral to oversold | Oversold | = | Oversold |
| Oversold to neutral | Bullish reversal | = | Bearish correction |
| Lower to upper neutral | Bullish continuation | = | Bearish pullback |
| Nuetral to overbought | Overbought | = | Overbought |
1. Price Targets
1.1 Support & Resistance
Support and resistance are levels on a price chart that act as barriers or zones where the price of an asset tends to stop, reverse, or experience a significant amount of buying or selling pressure.
Support is a price level at which demand for an asset is strong enough to prevent the price from falling further.
Resistance is a price level at which selling pressure becomes significant enough to prevent the price of an asset from rising further.
Score
Let's take a look at the Support & Resistance of U.S. 5 Year Treasury.
The long score for the Support & Resistance is 0/1.
The longshort score for the Support & Resistance is 0/(-1 +1).
- Between support/resistance: The price is trading between support and resistance lines.
The bullish price targets are: 4.389 < 4.458 < 4.661.
The bearish price targets are: 3.993 > 3.827 > 3.735.
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2. Trend Indicators
2.1 Moving Averages
- Moving averages are lagging trend indicators.
- There are many types of moving averages.
- Moving averages are also used within other indicators.
Score
Let's take a look at the Moving Averages of U.S. 5 Year Treasury. The current mas is .
The long score for the Moving Averages is 9/14.
The longshort score for the Moving Averages is 4/(-14 +14).
- MA 20 trending up: The MA 20 is trending up. +1
- Close < MA 20: The price is below the MA 20. -1
- MA 20 > MA 50: The MA 20 is higher than the MA 50. +1
- MA 20 > MA 100: The MA 20 is higher than the MA 100. +1
- MA 20 > MA 200: The MA 20 is higher than the MA 200. +1
- MA 50 trending up: The MA 50 is trending up. +1
- Close > MA 50: The price is above the MA 50. +1
- MA 50 > MA 100: The MA 50 is higher than the MA 100. +1
- MA 50 < MA 200: The MA 50 is lower than the MA 200. -1
- MA 100 trending down: The MA 100 is trending down. -1
- Close > MA 100: The price is above the MA 100. +1
- MA 100 < MA 200: The MA 100 is lower than the MA 200. -1
- MA 200 trending down: The MA 200 is trending down. -1
- Close > MA 200: The price is above the MA 200. +1
Directionalities and relatives.
| Moving Average | Amount of candles | Trend | Price +/- | vs. MA 50 | vs. MA 100 | vs. MA 200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA 20 | 20 | |||||
| MA 50 | 50 | - | ||||
| MA 100 | 100 | - | - | |||
| MA 200 | 200 | - | - | - |
Explanation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwW8h0lrQ-I
2.2 Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)
- MACD is a lagging momentum indicator.
- Uses two moving averages.
- Can show buy or sell signals based on momentum.
- Can show overbought. and oversold. levels.
Score
Let's take a look at the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) of U.S. 5 Year Treasury. The current macd is 0.07542382.
The long score for the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is 1/4.
The longshort score for the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is -2/(-4 +4).
- MACD line < signal line: The MACD line is below the signal line, which indicates a bearish signal in the market. This means that the negative momentum is currently stronger than the average momentum, suggesting that sellers are more active than buyers, and there's a higher probability of the U.S. 5 Year Treasury price going down in the near term. -2
- MACD > 0: The MACD is above the zero line (centerline), it indicates a bullish signal for U.S. 5 Year Treasury. This means that the short-term moving average is higher than the long-term moving average, signaling positive momentum and suggesting a higher likelihood of the U.S. 5 Year Treasury price continuing to rise in the near future. It indicates that buyers are gaining control, and there is optimism in the market, leading to potential price increases. +1
- Trending down: The MACD line is trending down. This indicates that the short-term moving average is falling faster than the long-term moving average, suggesting negative momentum in the market. This signals that sellers are becoming more active and insecure, leading to potential price decreases as traders anticipate further losses and are willing to sell at lower prices. -1
2.3 Directional Movement Index (DMI)
The DMI is a collection of 3 indicators: +DI (Plus Direction Indicator), -DI (Minus Direction Indicator) and ADX (Average Directional Index). The ADX helps you determine the strength of a trend.
Score
Let's take a look at the Directional Movement Index (DMI) of U.S. 5 Year Treasury. The current adx is 44.52.
The long score for the Directional Movement Index (DMI) is 3/7.
The longshort score for the Directional Movement Index (DMI) is 3/(-7 +7).
- PLUS_ID > MINUS_DI: The +DI line is above the -DI line. This indicates a bullish signal in the market, as the positive directional movement is currently stronger than the negative directional movement, showing that buyers have the upper hand. Market psychology suggests that traders are optimistic, expecting further price increases, and are more willing to buy U.S. 5 Year Treasury shares, leading to potential upward momentum in its price. +1
- PLUS_ID > MINUS_DI && ADX > 25 && ADX trending down: The ADX is above 25 and indicates a strong bullish trend. The ADX is declining, the bullish trend is weakening. Could be a potential reversal to the downside. +2
2.4 Parabolic SAR
- Parabolic SAR (stop and reverse) is a lagging trend indicator.
- Shows the current trend.
- Shows potential entry signals.
- Shows  potential exit signals.
- Can be used to place trailing stoplosses..
Score
Let's take a look at the Parabolic SAR of U.S. 5 Year Treasury. The current sar is 4.36657259.
The long score for the Parabolic SAR is 0/1.
The longshort score for the Parabolic SAR is -1/(-1 +1).
- Close < SAR: The price is below the SAR. It's generally considered a bearish signal. -1
SUPPORTERis ad-free.3. Momentum Indicators
3.1 Relative Strength Index (RSI)
- Leading momentum indicator, meaning the signals are instant.
- Ranges between 0 and 100.
- Above 70 is considered overbought.
- Below 30 is considered oversold.
- Above or below 50 can also be used to determine price trend or support and resistance.
- RSI divergence looks at a deviation between RSI and price movement. Penketrading automatically calculates RSI divergences.
- Can be used in many different ways
Score
Let's take a look at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of U.S. 5 Year Treasury. The current rsi is 53.36. The current phase is Continuation in bull market.
The long score for the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 4/13.
The longshort score for the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 4/(-13 +13).
- Continuation in bull market: Uptrend continues after a consolidation or pullback. Hold or add to existing positions.
- Trending up: The RSI is trending up. +1
3.2 Stochastic Oscillator
- Leading momentum indicator, meaning the signals are instant.
- Used to determine overbought and oversold areas much like the RSI.
- Ranges between 0 and 100.
- Above 80 is considered overbought.
- Below 20 is considered oversold.
- Consists of two lines named K and D.
- K compares the highest high and lowest low on the selected price range.
- The D line is a moving average of the K line.
- Can be used to spot divergences
Score
Let's take a look at the Stochastic Oscillator of U.S. 5 Year Treasury. The current phase is Correction in bull market.
The long score for the Stochastic Oscillator is 1/6.
The longshort score for the Stochastic Oscillator is -2/(-6 +6).
- STOCH < 50: The STOCH %K is below 50. There are more sellers than buyers. -1
- STOCH %K line < STOCH %D line: The STOCH %K line is below the STOCH %D line, which indicates a bearish signal in the market. This means that the negative momentum is currently stronger than the average momentum, suggesting that sellers are more active than buyers, and there's a higher probability of the U.S. 5 Year Treasury price going down in the near term. -2
- Trending up: The STOCH %K is trending up. +1
3.3 Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
- Lagging or leading Momentum indicator
- When the CCI is above zero, the price is above the historical average
- When the CCI is below zero, the price is below the historical average
- Used for spotting trends
- If the CCI moves from negative or near zero to positive 100 that might indicate an uptrend
- If the CCI moves from positive or near zero to negative -100 that might indicate a downtrend
Score
Let's take a look at the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of U.S. 5 Year Treasury. The current cci is -45.72864322.
3.4 Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO)
- Lagging momentum indicator
- Ranges between +100 and -100
- Considered overbought above +50
- Considered oversold below -50
- It's possible to add a moving average that acts as a signal line
Score
Let's take a look at the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) of U.S. 5 Year Treasury. The current cmo is -8.08354691.
The long score for the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) is 0/1.
The longshort score for the Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) is -1/(-1 +1).
- CMO < 0: The CMO is below 0, the momentum of the price is negative, indicating a potential downtrend in the price. -1
3.5 Williams %R
- Lagging momentum indicator
- Ranging between 0 and -100
- Above -20 is considered overbought
- Below -80 is considered oversold
- Is prone to give false signals
Score
Let's take a look at the Williams %R of U.S. 5 Year Treasury. The current willr is -76.61290323.
The long score for the Williams %R is 0/1.
The longshort score for the Williams %R is 0/(-1 +1).
- WILLR between -80 and -20: The Williams %R is between -80 and -20. This indicates that U.S. 5 Year Treasury is trading in a neutral price range, neither oversold nor overbought, suggesting a balanced market condition without any extreme price signals.
SUPPORTERis ad-free.4. Volatility Indicators
4.1 Bollinger Bands
- Lagging volatility indicator
- Uses 3 bands: one upper, one lower and one in the middle
- Works best when the middle band reflects an intermediate trend (MA20).
- When the price is moving closer to the upper band, the market might be overbought
- When the price is moving closer to the lower band, the market might be oversoldÂ
Score
Let's take a look at the Bollinger Bands of U.S. 5 Year Treasury.
4.2 Average True Range (ATR)
- Leading volatility indicator
- Can be used to determine stop-loss positions
- Calculated by:
- Current high minus the current low
- Current high minus the previous close
- Current low minus the previous close
- The larger the range of the candles, the greater the ATR value
Score
Let's take a look at the Average True Range (ATR) of U.S. 5 Year Treasury. The current atr is 0.0875043.
SUPPORTERis ad-free.5. Volume Indicators
5.1 On-Balance Volume (OBV)
- Leading momentum indicator
- Calculation:
- If the closing price is above the previous closing price: OBV = previous OBV + current volume
- If the closing price is below the previous closing price: OBV = previous OBV - current volume
- If the closing price is the same as the previous closing price than the OBV is the same.
- Can be used to confirm price trends
- Can be used with divergences
Score
Let's take a look at the On-Balance Volume (OBV) of U.S. 5 Year Treasury. The current obv is 0.
5.2 Money Flow Index (MFI)
- Lagging momentum indicator
- Looks like RSI but uses volume as an extra metric (RSI only considers price)
- Above 80 is considered overbought
- Below 20 is considered oversold
- Can be used with divergences
Score
Let's take a look at the Money Flow Index (MFI) of U.S. 5 Year Treasury. The current mfi is 0.
The long score for the Money Flow Index (MFI) is 0/2.
The longshort score for the Money Flow Index (MFI) is -2/(-2 +2).
- MFI < 50: -1
- MFI < 20: -1
SUPPORTERis ad-free.6. Summary
6.1. Notifications
| Type | Notification | Date |
|---|---|---|
 Currently no notifications for U.S. 5 Year Treasury. |
6.2. Trading Signals
Below you will find trading signals as the indicator is commonly used. This doesn't mean you should use it that way. Learn from these, but don't use them blindly. I recommend using at least 4 indicators, 1 from each category: trend, momentum, volatility and volume.
| Date | Indicator | Signal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-11 | CCI | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | -100 crossover to downside |
| BB | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | Price closed below the lower band. | |
| ATR | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | Price closed below (close - ATR). | |
| 2024-07-12 | STOCH | LONG EXIT | The %K line crosses below the %D line. | |
| 2024-07-15 | STOCH | SHORT EXIT | The %K line crosses above the %D line. | |
| 2024-07-16 | STOCH | LONG EXIT | The %K line crosses below the %D line. | |
| BB | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | Price closed below the lower band. | |
| 2024-07-18 | STOCH | SHORT EXIT | The %K line crosses above the %D line. | |
| 2024-07-23 | MACD | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | The MACD line crosses above the signal line. |
| 2024-07-25 | STOCH | LONG EXIT | The %K line crosses below the %D line. | |
| 2024-07-26 | WILLR | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | -80 crossover to downside |
| 2024-07-29 | MACD | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | The MACD line crosses below the signal line. |
| CCI | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | -100 crossover to downside | |
| 2024-07-31 | BB | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | Price closed below the lower band. |
| ATR | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | Price closed below (close - ATR). | |
| 2024-08-01 | ATR | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | Price closed below (close - ATR). |
| 2024-08-02 | STOCH | SHORT EXIT | The %K line crosses above the %D line. | |
| ATR | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | Price closed below (close - ATR). | |
| 2024-08-07 | SAR | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | The price broke the SAR to the upside. |
| RSI | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | 30 crossover to upside | |
| 2024-08-12 | STOCH | LONG EXIT | The %K line crosses below the %D line. | |
| 2024-08-14 | RSI | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | 30 crossover to upside |
| 2024-08-15 | STOCH | SHORT EXIT | The %K line crosses above the %D line. | |
| ATR | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | Price closed above (close + ATR). | |
| 2024-08-16 | MACD | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | The MACD line crosses above the signal line. |
| 2024-08-20 | STOCH | LONG EXIT | The %K line crosses below the %D line. | |
| 2024-08-21 | STOCH | SHORT EXIT | The %K line crosses above the %D line. | |
| 2024-08-23 | STOCH | LONG EXIT | The %K line crosses below the %D line. | |
| WILLR | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | -80 crossover to downside | |
| 2024-08-26 | SAR | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | The price broke the SAR to the downside |
| 2024-08-27 | STOCH | SHORT EXIT | The %K line crosses above the %D line. | |
| WILLR | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | -80 crossover to downside | |
| 2024-09-03 | STOCH | LONG EXIT | The %K line crosses below the %D line. | |
| WILLR | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | -80 crossover to downside | |
| 2024-09-04 | CCI | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | -100 crossover to downside |
| BB | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | Price closed below the lower band. | |
| ATR | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | Price closed below (close - ATR). | |
| 2024-09-05 | STOCH | SHORT EXIT | The %K line crosses above the %D line. | |
| 2024-09-06 | MACD | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | The MACD line crosses below the signal line. |
| 2024-09-10 | STOCH | LONG EXIT | The %K line crosses below the %D line. | |
| 2024-09-11 | STOCH | SHORT EXIT | The %K line crosses above the %D line. | |
| 2024-09-12 | RSI | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | 30 crossover to upside |
| 2024-09-13 | STOCH | LONG EXIT | The %K line crosses below the %D line. | |
| WILLR | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | -80 crossover to downside | |
| 2024-09-17 | RSI | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | 30 crossover to upside |
| STOCH | SHORT EXIT | The %K line crosses above the %D line. | ||
| 2024-09-18 | MACD | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | The MACD line crosses above the signal line. |
| 2024-09-19 | SAR | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | The price broke the SAR to the upside. |
| 2024-09-25 | CMO | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | Zero line crossover to upside |
| 2024-09-26 | WILLR | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | -20 crossover to upside |
| 2024-09-27 | STOCH | LONG EXIT | The %K line crosses below the %D line. | |
| CMO | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | Zero line crossover to downside | |
| 2024-09-30 | STOCH | SHORT EXIT | The %K line crosses above the %D line. | |
| CMO | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | Zero line crossover to upside | |
| WILLR | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | -20 crossover to upside | |
| 2024-10-01 | STOCH | LONG EXIT | The %K line crosses below the %D line. | |
| CMO | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | Zero line crossover to downside | |
| 2024-10-02 | STOCH | SHORT EXIT | The %K line crosses above the %D line. | |
| CCI | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | 100 crossover to upside | |
| CMO | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | Zero line crossover to upside | |
| WILLR | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | -20 crossover to upside | |
| 2024-10-03 | DMI | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | The +DI crossed the -DI to the upside. The trend is reversing to an up trend. |
| BB | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | Price closed above the lower band. | |
| 2024-10-04 | ATR | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | Price closed above (close + ATR). |
| 2024-10-07 | STOCH | LONG EXIT | The %K line crosses below the %D line. | |
| 2024-10-09 | STOCH | SHORT EXIT | The %K line crosses above the %D line. | |
| 2024-10-10 | RSI | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | 70 crossover to downside |
| STOCH | LONG EXIT | The %K line crosses below the %D line. | ||
| 2024-10-16 | SAR | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | The price broke the SAR to the downside |
| 2024-10-17 | STOCH | SHORT EXIT | The %K line crosses above the %D line. | |
| WILLR | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | -20 crossover to upside | |
| 2024-10-21 | SAR | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | The price broke the SAR to the upside. |
| WILLR | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | -20 crossover to upside | |
| ATR | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | Price closed above (close + ATR). | |
| 2024-10-22 | CCI | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | 100 crossover to upside |
| 2024-10-23 | STOCH | LONG EXIT | The %K line crosses below the %D line. | |
| 2024-10-24 | RSI | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | 70 crossover to downside |
| 2024-10-25 | STOCH | SHORT EXIT | The %K line crosses above the %D line. | |
| CCI | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | 100 crossover to upside | |
| 2024-10-29 | RSI | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | 70 crossover to downside |
| STOCH | LONG EXIT | The %K line crosses below the %D line. | ||
| 2024-10-30 | STOCH | SHORT EXIT | The %K line crosses above the %D line. | |
| WILLR | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | -20 crossover to upside | |
| 2024-11-04 | RSI | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | 70 crossover to downside |
| STOCH | LONG EXIT | The %K line crosses below the %D line. | ||
| 2024-11-06 | STOCH | SHORT EXIT | The %K line crosses above the %D line. | |
| WILLR | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | -20 crossover to upside | |
| ATR | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | Price closed above (close + ATR). | |
| 2024-11-07 | RSI | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | 70 crossover to downside |
| STOCH | LONG EXIT | The %K line crosses below the %D line. | ||
| 2024-11-08 | MACD | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | The MACD line crosses below the signal line. |
| 2024-11-12 | MACD | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | The MACD line crosses above the signal line. |
| STOCH | SHORT EXIT | The %K line crosses above the %D line. | ||
| CCI | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | 100 crossover to upside | |
| WILLR | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | -20 crossover to upside | |
| ATR | LONG ENTRY | SHORT CLOSE | Price closed above (close + ATR). | |
| 2024-11-14 | STOCH | LONG EXIT | The %K line crosses below the %D line. | |
| 2024-11-18 | MACD | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | The MACD line crosses below the signal line. |
| 2024-11-19 | SAR | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | The price broke the SAR to the downside |
| 2024-11-20 | STOCH | SHORT EXIT | The %K line crosses above the %D line. | |
| 2024-11-22 | STOCH | LONG EXIT | The %K line crosses below the %D line. | |
| 2024-11-25 | CMO | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | Zero line crossover to downside |
| WILLR | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | -80 crossover to downside | |
| ATR | SHORT ENTRY | LONG CLOSE | Price closed below (close - ATR). | |
6.3. Candlestick Patterns
| Date | Candlestick Pattern |
|---|
6.4. Technical Score
Let's check the technical score of U.S. 5 Year Treasury based on Penke's default Symbol scanner.
Penke's Symbol Scanner
| Indicator | Condition | Value | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rsi | Greater than | 50 | 53.361 | |
| Ma 20 | Greater than | Ma 50 | 4.240 | |
| Ma 50 | Greater than | Ma 100 | 3.956 | |
| Ma 100 | Greater than | Ma 200 | 3.884 | |
| Open | Greater than | Close | 4.186 | |
| Total | 3/5 (60.0%) | |||
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